US Fed holds rates steady, Powell to remain on its board

The United States Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent as pressure on the labour market and inflation, as the US-Israel war on Iran and subsequent retaliation weigh on the global economy.

The US central bank announced its decision, which was largely in line with economists’ expectations, on Wednesday, wrapping up the last two-day policy meeting led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

CME FedWatch, which tracks the likelihood of various monetary policy decisions, had a 100 percent expectation that the central bank would maintain rates.

Eight officials voted to maintain rates. However, three officials dissented in favour of removing the reference to a future cut, while a fourth, Stephen Miran, an appointee of US President Donald Trump, dissented in favour of an immediate rate cut — marking the most dissents at the central bank since October 1992.

“Three members resisted including an easing bias, suggesting more divides in the central bank ahead,” Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera.

Looming inflationary pressures on oil markets and a stagnant labour market have weighed on the central bank’s decision-making.

“Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook,” the Fed said in a statement.

“Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices,” it added.

On Wednesday, US crude rose 7.31 percent to $107.24 a barrel, and Brent was up 7.26 percent at $119.34 after touching its highest point since 2022.

“The Fed remained on hold as expected and signalled that further cuts will be difficult in the wake of rising prices,” Ziemba said.

For general consumers, petrol prices continue to climb. The average price for a gallon (3.78 litres) of petrol is $4.22, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices. The average price was $2.98 on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

“Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has changed little in recent months,” the central bank added in its statement.

The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed little change in both the number of job openings and the number of people leaving their positions. Meanwhile, the most recent jobs report, published in early March, showed the US economy added 178,000 jobs after shedding 92,000 jobs in February.

“A good part of the slowing pace of job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labour force due to lower immigration and labour force participation,” Powell said in a news conference following the decision.

“Though labour demand has clearly softened as well, other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months.”

Political pressure

The decision to maintain rates comes as Kevin Warsh, Trump’s replacement to succeed Jerome Powell, was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday in a party-line vote, advancing his candidacy to the broader US Senate.

Powell congratulated Warsh on the confirmation at the news conference.

Prior to the vote, Warsh’s candidacy was in flux after Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina said he would not vote to confirm any Trump nominee to the central bank until the Department of Justice dropped a probe into Powell.

Last week, the Department of Justice dropped that investigation.

Warsh, who served on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, has long praised the president and his leadership on monetary policy. In November, he published an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal hailing Trump’s “deregulatory agenda” and calling it “the most significant since President Ronald Reagan’s”.

In December, Trump said that he would not appoint anyone to lead the central bank unless the appointee agreed with him. That sparked concerns among Democrats during Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing, when Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, a ranking member of the committee, accused Warsh of being a “sock puppet” for Trump rather than acting independently on monetary policy decisions. Warsh has pushed back on those allegations.

Regardless, if Warsh becomes chair of the central bank, Powell will still be on the Fed’s Board of Governors, where he has a seat until 2028. Trump previously threatened to fire Powell if he did not step down.

But in the news conference on Wednesday, Powell addressed those concerns and said that he would not be stepping down amid concerns about Trump’s attempts to sway the Fed.

“I’ve said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality, and I stand by that. I am encouraged by recent developments and watching the remaining steps in this process carefully,” Powell said.

“I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined. I plan to keep a low profile as a governor.”

Powell said his decision is based on concerns of political influence on the central bank.

“I worry these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.”

“I had long planned to be retiring. The things that have happened really in the last three months, I think, left me no choice but to stay until I see them through, at least that long.”

US markets are trending downwards on the Fed’s decision. The Nasdaq is down 0.1 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled by 0.7 percent, and S&P 500 is down by 0.25 in midday trading.