Argus

โ€ข

Mar 16, 2026

Sector(s)

Utilities, Technology, Healthcare

Summary

This is a 'Fed week,' but there is no expected movement in interest rates. Still, investors will be listening carefully to the Fed's thoughts about both global affairs and the domestic economy. The price of oil will also be in focus, based on wide price swings since the war in Iran began. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2%, the S&P 500 also was down 2%, while the Nasdaq shed 1%. Year to date, all three indices are now in the red, with the Dow and the S&P lower by 3% and the Nasdaq off by almost 5%. On the earnings calendar, a few late earnings will trickle in this week. Dollar Tree reports on Monday; Lululemon Athletica on Tuesday; Micron Technology, Jabil, Williams-Sonoma, and General Mills on Wednesday; and Alibaba, Accenture, FedEx, and Darden Restaurants on Thursday. The results for the fourth quarter are pretty much in the books, with overall earnings up 14% from last quarter. Information Technology, up 34%, and Industrials, up 17%, led the pack. At the bottom were Utilities, down 1%, and Consumer Discretionary, flat, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. On the economic calendar, this is a light week other than the Fed meeting. Industrial production and capacity utilization are reported on Monday; wholesale inflation indicator PPI is due on Wednesday; and data on new home sales comes out on Thursday. Turning to other data, the impact of the Iran war is starting to show up in economic forecasts. Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts growth of 2.7% for 1Q, a significant drop from 3.0% last week. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast calls for 2.9% for March, substantially higher than the 2.6% call last week. Mortgage rates also made a big move higher last week, up 11 basis points, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.11%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices jumped 48 cents last week and are at an average of $3.50 per gallon for regular gas.  After this week's Fed meeting, the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on April 29, then on June 17 and July 29. Odds for a rate cut have dropped to below 50% for all of those meetings. President Trump's nominee to be the next Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, is making his way through the Congressional approval process. Once Jerome Powell's term as chairman expires, he will remain on the FOMC. Taking a deeper dive into performance so far in 2026, a leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA,

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