Goldman Sachs sits at 72% on Polymarket's "who leads the SpaceX IPO" market and Morgan Stanley has clawed its way back to 25%, which means someone's compliance department is having a very interesting week. The Information reported Tuesday that SpaceX is filing its confidential S-1 as soon as this week, targeting a $75 billion raise at a valuation north of $1.5 trillion, a number so large it makes Saudi Aramco's record 2019 offering feel like a Series B.

Here's the thing about prediction markets. They're one of the few places on earth where the information asymmetry that would get a Goldman junior banker with too much info a phone call from the SEC instead just gets him 72 cents on the dollar. Somewhere right now, there is a managing director who knows exactly which bank is lead-left on the most consequential IPO mandate in a generation, and instead of quietly buying calls on his own firm's stock like a normal person, he has to sit on his hands and watch his underlings correctly price the outcome on their personal phones. The miracle of markets. Efficient, humbling, and deeply annoying if you're the one with the actual answer.

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Morgan Stanley's Michael Grimes reportedly delivered the final bake-off presentation at Starbase in person, which is the most effective thing a banker has done since somebody convinced WeWork it deserved a roadshow. Goldman has the deal history. Morgan Stanley has the relationship. Prediction markets have mostly decided which of those things matters more, and did so without anyone having to file a single Form 4.

BofA is sitting at 3% and JPMorgan at 1%. That's what you get when you show up to a knife fight without Elon's cell phone number.

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